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in this article they are able to pick a more in-depth sight at one of the most vital shale basins in the united states (U.S.) mainly focusing on the challenge of well productiveness over time. here's a crucial difficulty since it has ramifications for fairness valuations in the sector (NYSE:XOP) as smartly because the outlook for international oil deliver dynamics.
It occasionally looks that the U.S. shale business just can't issue to shift the narrative and overcome the reputedly overwhelming penniless sentiment overhanging the sphere. but are traders extrapolating one of the most very precise negative risk factors that could exist material when it comes to selected companies onto the entire trade?
one of the vital enduring terrible elements it's regularly trumpeted out with the aid of the bears is that these businesses don't look to exist producing free cash stream (or not in a position to) as capital bills deserve to continue to exist towering with a purpose to offset legacy declines. It is right that legacy decline rates for shale wells are steep. youngsters, many groups (no longer all) were working a tons larger cost of capital expenditure in order to develop production (and in some situations cover preliminary construction expenses linked to infrastructure) and if their direct become to in simple terms retain flat output ranges, their capital costs could exist an Awful lot lessen.
If they pick a glance on the most contemporaneous consequences presentation from Pioneer herbal elements (NYSE:PXD) they can see that the company has outlined a capital expenditure budget of around USD three.1bn which well-nigh matches forecasted working money circulation of USD 3.2bn. however, this stage of capital expenditure will outcome in an additional 15% creation boom in oil volumes this yr at a budgeted West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fee of $53 per barrel. If the company were with ease to maintain output at 2018 ranges, the mandatory degree of capital expenditure would decline to $2.2bn, implying EBIT (or salary earlier than tax and hobby) of round $1bn.
supply: q4 profits Presentation, Pioneer natural substances
Some market individuals may additionally silent consider a bit of unsatisfied at these kindhearted of metrics, however an oil company able to grow construction inside cash tide at $fifty three per barrel is surely now not terminally mistaken. specifically when it has a reserve base a telling course to permit it to provide at current tiers for essentially two decades if not extra. Assuming the identical profile of charge, creation (hence no production increase) and productiveness metrics, PXD could well generate annual EBIT of roughly $2.2bn at a protracted-time epoch WTI expense of $70.
moving on from this selected narrative, the latest malign soundbite that investors maintain had to suffer is that this contemporaneous article posted by using the Wall road Journal.
The article purportedly uncovers a plague structural difficulty in the business in that the productivity and ultimate volumes exhibited by using the industry taking complete wells drilled over the censorious length maintain fallen in exigency of the quite a lot of ‘classification curves’ presented by the numerous listed groups of their displays. This should silent no longer always approach as a surprise. Any pro investor may silent know that organizations often are trying to depict the very best reflection of their business’ s fundamentals in a presentation. during this sense, are U.S. shale groups any different to most different businesses that automatically miss forecasts or projections that they manufacture in their shows?
Any investor that might cost a corporation primarily based solely on these introduced class curves devoid of applying a suit margin of safety is being silly. in fact it almost always can pay to supervene a margin of safeguard when formulating a valuation considering the fact that it is unimaginable to grasp every thing about a corporation, in any trade really.
but does the Wall road Journal article betoken that unvarying trade productivity is declining? we've written in prior articles that there does issue to exist a reputable thesis (such as the father or mother-child well interference difficulty) that the productivity positive aspects the industry has registered over the past decade aren't likely to prove sustainable for tons longer.
besides the fact that children, there is not any actual proof at this juncture of a decline in productivity as they are able to see within the charts beneath taken from the energy suggestions Administration (EIA) newest drilling productiveness file (DPR) for January 2019. productiveness measured in terms oil creation per rig in the first month that a neatly is drilled rose to a record stage in the Bakken basin in 2018 and is silent at or proximate to these stages.
supply: EIA, Drilling productiveness report
within the Permian, smartly productivity measured on this groundwork reached a record in early 2016 and however receding sort of since then, productivity remains mostly unchanged over the terminal two years.
supply: EIA, Drilling productivity document
in addition, when it involves the Permian it's crucial to remain cognizant that a huge component (1mn bpd) of oil construction factored into the DPR metrics is legacy widely wide-spread production, whereas logistical bottlenecks has meant that the number of drilled but uncompleted wells has climbed enormously over the terminal twelve months, likely a diminutive distorting these identical productiveness metrics.
in view that this manner of measuring productiveness will also exist a diminutive bit improper, they checked out different most likely greater valuable comparisons, due to the incredible information compiled and published by Shaleprofile.com. They looked at data for the Bakken and Permian basin specially evaluating the oil creation per well achieved after 365 days for the 2017 antique to the 2016 vintage. For the Bakken the 2016 extinct of wells drilled (737 in total) produced 111,009 barrels per day (bpd) or a hundred and fifty bpd per neatly after one year. The 2017 vintage (992 wells drilled) produced roughly one hundred eighty,000 bpd (we maintain extrapolated this from the actual November 2018 determine of 193,000 bpd) or 181 bpd per smartly. they can see that the 2017 wells are really producing greater oil per smartly twelve months later when in comparison to the 2016 old.
more primarily, Shaleprofile.com actually offers a evaluation between calendar vintages when it comes to oil construction per smartly for each and every yr, depicted below. they can see that for the Bakken basin as a minimum, productiveness as measured in oil produced per neatly accomplished has stronger each year.
analyzing the identical information for the Permian basin, the equal style is largely observed. The 2017 extinct of wells drilled are producing extra oil per well drilled three hundred and sixty five days later (December 2018) when in comparison to the 2016 vintage of wells. again referencing the records from Shaleprofile.com for the Permian below they can see within the second chart that the cumulative construction per well for the 2018 and 2017 vintages are operating forward of prior year vintages.
What happens if productiveness ranges decline going forward?
First, what can they conclude from the above analysis? in complete probability, most importantly the suggestion that shale productiveness is declining or has vastly “undershot” prior expectations is it appears that evidently mistaken. truly, if the leisure the business has up to now over delivered in terms of productivity positive factors, which in revolve is why they dependence that these telling points are likely going to array unsustainable going ahead. however, notwithstanding productivity tiers flatten out or decline slightly from current stages, here is now not a bearish component for many of the individual organizations themselves.
As we've mentioned in a previous article, a ten% decline in productivity would “Ceteris Paribus” elevate total construction (including capital) expenses with the aid of 10% or assuming a base saturate of $30 per barrel of oil such as $33. besides the fact that children, a 10% (and even simply flat) decline in productiveness would maintain large implications for overall U.S. oil creation boom and therefore the global oil market, considering the fact that the international oil market at the instant well-nigh relies just about entirely on an augment in U.S. creation boom to answer the incremental augment in world oil demand.
excessive legacy decline fees imply that shale oil operators achieve should drill a larger number of wells every year with a purpose to boost output tiers. (word: boost now not retain - here's a vital colossal incompatibility and has nothing to achieve with individual smartly productivity). this suggests a concomitant boost within the rig weigh number, each year. Referencing statistics compiled and presented by using Raymond James beneath, they can see that totally to ensure that U.S. production degrees to hold transforming into, the rig weigh number will should augment by using roughly 30% over the subsequent two years. This forecast assumes a 5% enhance in productivity into perpetuity.
If productivity degrees stall or decline modestly (possible in their opinion) then the necessary enhance within the rig weigh number will should exist even larger, most likely 40% to 50% bigger. Such a colossal boost within the rig weigh number will effortlessly now not ensue with oil prices beneath $60 per barrel and quite perhaps it could possibly require sustained fees above $70 per barrel. Assuming a 5% to 10% decline in productiveness degrees ends up in an equilibrium fee of between $70 to $90 per barrel imperative to stimulate renewed rig deployment (in the trade as an entire), the incremental augment in revenues that would accrue to many U.S. shale producers would dwarf the marginal augment in charges associated with a one of these decline in productiveness.
With the oil rig weigh number (as depicted under) having remained largely flat over the terminal six months, it seems that we're a very telling course away from reaching the sort of rig weigh required to ensure continued creation boom within the usaor at least at a stage similar to what we've viewed over the past two years. really, in keeping with probably the most contemporaneous EIA DPR record for January 2019, projected oil production growth from the a considerable number of shale basins has already been revised sharply lessen to just sixty two,000 bpd (month-to-month), the lowest monthly DPR projection from the EIA on account that January 2017.
supply: Baker Hughes U.S. Oil Rig weigh number, Tradingeconomics
The precise topic in U.S. shale right now
eventually, they ought to spotlight an extra difficulty which they deem will grow to exist being course more crucial than the productiveness topic at a macro stage (despite the fact the two are nevertheless a bit of linked) we've discussed at length in this article. The differentiation between core and non-core acreage within North america’ s shale basins is, they believe, going to develop into an increasingly vital factor, no longer only for the organizations themselves, but when it comes to the complete outlook for world power expenditures.
Returning to the Permian for instance and greater above complete the fresh pursuits that maintain unfolded at Laredo Petroleum (NYSE:LPI) they can illustrate extra accurately what they try to convey. LPI's acreage within the Midland constituent of the Permian basin is arguably backyard what's now considered the core or gold gauge acreage in the enviornment. This does not spell that their acreage is uneconomic at present costs, nonetheless it isn't going to supply the returns that operators are becoming within the core area.
For functions of their instance they will exhaust records from a presentation given via Parsley energy (NYSE:PE) through which they current their personal estimation of the the plot the core acreage within the Midland component of the Permian lies.
supply: corporate Presentation, Parsley energy
we are able to see that much (although not all) of the acreage is concentrated within the Midland, Martin and Upton counties. In distinction, LPI's acreage (or at the least in accordance with Parsley's estimation) lies backyard the core enviornment as defined within the Reagan and Glasscock counties.
supply: corporate Presentation, Laredo Petroleum
to ensure that us to verify Parsley energy's estimation of what constitutes core acreage within the Midland basin they again to Shaleprofile.com and looked at the historical productivity of wells drilled in the a variety of counties pertinent to the Midland basin area. above complete they looked at cumulative oil production 24 months after a neatly has been drilled. If they soar with Midland county itself (arguably the epicenter of the core), they can see that general well productivity here indicates no note of degradation.
by contrast if look at the identical timeline of 24 months for wells drilled in Reagan county they examine here -
This statistics at least seems to verify Parsley's power's definition of what constitutes "core acreage" in this a section of the Permian. curiously we'd constituent out that typical well productivity in Glasscock county reflects a similar sample to that followed in Midland county even if it is largely described as being outdoor the core. despite the fact, over a 12 month time-body well productivity in Glasscock has also declined and in distinction to Midland county, where gauge well productivity measured over 12 months continues to exist at a listing excessive.
In LPI's case the incontrovertible fact that they look to own acreage outdoor of what may also exist considered "core" became compounded by using a altenative in 2017 to drill larger density wells per spacing unit (a spacing unit is typically 640 acres) or 32 wells per unit from eight to sixteen wells per unit. The result predictably resulted in "dad or mum-baby interference" as more infill wells maintain been drilled and resulted in an surprising decline in oil productivity, thus forcing administration to approach back to a lessen density drilling programme.
let us exist pellucid although, an operator it truly is experiencing declining productivity because of a drilling programme that has overly dense spacing is facing a different concern from one working out of core acreage or transferring their drilling programme to poorer acreage. the previous situation can exist resolved by using the business adopting wider spacing with the aim to recrudesce its productiveness stages lower back to where they had been. Naturally this reduces the number of competencies well places that may also exist drilled by the enterprise, but when an organization has a very giant stock or drilling areas (like LPI) then the greatest maintain an repercussion on are not that large.
despite the fact, if a company is now having to shift its drilling programme to acreage with reduce intrinsic productiveness or a lessen "oil cut" there's without problems not a telling deal they can achieve about that. during this regard, there are likely to exist many smaller or inner most operators that are facing just this kindhearted of status of affairs over the following few years. Naturally, the two concerns could nonetheless exist linked in that poorer acreage can't accommodate the identical character of density that stronger acreage can and during this sense an operator in a non-core enviornment running the identical sort of spacing density as operators within the core should silent exist considered probably bigger risk.
Why are they bringing up this specific illustration? neatly for two causes. the primary purpose is as an instance how much smaller the terminal core acreage in the main shale basins in the U.S. may actually be. really as highlighted during this report from Kimmeridge power, total core acreage in the Midland basin may also best volume to a few 800,000 acres which via their definition comprises acreage in counties similar to Reagan and Glasscock which Parsley power's records shows best comprises a wee constituent of core acreage.
moreover related to here is the indisputable fact that lots if now not most of this core acreage is now consolidated within the hands of a simply a number of groups. there's the identical dynamic at play in the different foremost oil producing basins in the united states, the Bakken and Eagle Ford, which along with the Permian account for ninety% of total tight (shale) oil production in the U.S.
So what, some may ask? well, the value is that youngsters these organizations maintain tremendous reserves, they even maintain well delineated long-time epoch evolution plans that target a particular expense of annual growth in production, continually between 10% and 20%. they are extraordinarily not likely to deviate, or at the least meaningfully, from these long-time epoch production plans until fees alternate at a telling deal larger degrees for a sustained epoch of time.
As smaller operators or companies with less eye-catching acreage flee out of core acreage, the gross boost in construction from these basins will ultimately emanate totally from these handful of ‘ core’ operators, as they can exist the most efficient ones left with pecuniary or core acreage to pick advantage of and therefore grow production. in the conclude this suggests that in the future a tremendously larger and sustained cost may exist required to Move the needle on U.S. production growth than has been the case during the past. it will ought to exist sufficiently multiplied with a purpose to manufacture inescapable that extra marginal or “Tier 2” acreage is economic. this may or should dramatically boost the expense of organizations that maintain tremendous reserves (or many years of core creation) of Tier 1 acreage.
The 2nd intent they are highlighting LPI listed here is to array that on the reform fee even corporations with extra marginal acreage may nevertheless exist eye-catching as abilities investments. here's chiefly the case with organizations that silent maintain a fairly large stock of drilling areas relative to their latest stage of completions and the plot the decline in productiveness can also exist largely remedied with the aid of adopting wider spacing between wells.
LPI has naturally had its complications and its construction profile is sort of gassy (oil only contains 37% of total oil equal production). indeed this seems to exist fitting a greater tolerable feature of the Midland basin, namely a reasonably chunky upward thrust within the gas-Oil ratio over time and a residual risk component for operators during this basin together with LPI.
nonetheless, if they anticipate that the suitable "incentive" expense for the U.S. shale business as a gross (in order to manufacture inescapable that gauge production growth continues to exist above 1mn bpd) is round $70, then even LPI may additionally present some upside from current tiers. LPI nevertheless retains considerable acreage and even at an assumed lessen spacing interval of whisper 5 to 8 wells per 640 acre spacing unit would maintain some 1,000 to 1,600 ultimate neatly places as inventory.
At a construction pace of round 50-60 completions per yr (the surely cadence to manufacture confident a flat creation profile withhold up 2020) this may translate into 15 to twenty years expense of inventory. At an extended-term WTI expense of $70, LPI continues to exist prone to generate adequate operational cash Move to cowl its required capital fees and generate well extra earnings, regardless of what they might also add is a very cumbersome accepted and Administrative rate burden! (another excuse why the industry should see even more consolidation in order to convey loyal shareholder cost).
*LPI - the canary in the coalmine?
LPI's acreage however in complete probability now not considered as core continues to exist viewed as Tier one and never complete that marginal. despite this verisimilitude they will see from the slip taken from their q4 revenue presentation and according to their latest assumption of $fifty four per barrel going ahead, LPI is cutting back is energetic rig weigh number from 3 to 1 and cutting back its total capital expenditure funds for 2019 by means of basically 50%. LPI's current and long flee drilling programme will result in a 5% decline in oil production this 12 months and flat construction from 2020 onwards (2 rigs)
source: this drop earnings presentation, Laredo Petroleum
So from their perspective they may view LPI as a potential barometer for the total industry in that its acreage seems to exist in the "core" of the trade range. In a nutshell, if the oil expense increases to a degree where LPI is producing ample money movement and management feels sufficiently assured to delivery ramping up construction, then we've likely reached a similar inflexion aspect for the gross business and vice-versa.
certainly, LPI's incentive cost with the aim to ramp up production is now above $60 per barrel (in complete probability $70?). If here is the case they will conclude that except oil expenditures recrudesce to the $70 to $80 stage, fabric draw back risk to U.S. oil production growth forecasts are likely to emerge as the year unfolds.
Disclosure: i am/we're long LPI. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my very own opinions. i am not receiving compensation for it (apart from from in the hunt for Alpha). I don't maintain any enterprise relationship with any company whose inventory is outlined in this article.
For the most part, the Wi-Fi Alliance is stoked about the observe of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) wherein the FCC is analyzing methods to manufacture up to 1200 megahertz of spectrum accessible to exist used by using unlicensed devices in the 6 GHz troupe (5.925-7.one hundred twenty five GHz). nevertheless it's offering some concepts for adjustments, announcing its tips will exist confident insurance draw of incumbent operations whereas providing severely essential spectrum for unlicensed makes exhaust of fondness Wi-Fi.
The FCC launched the NPRM closing drop and posed a progression of inquiries to business stakeholders on a number of proposals to manufacture complete of it work. the primary round of feedback became due on Friday.
The Wi-Fi Alliance renowned it helps the FCC’s understanding to divide the 6 GHz troupe into four sub-bands: the U-NII-5 (5.925-6.425 GHz), U-NII-6 (6.425-6.525 GHz), U-NII-7 (6.525-6.875 GHz) and U-NII-8 (6.875-7.a hundred twenty five GHz), according to the features of incumbent features. The alliance additionally supports the commission’s inspiration to modify unlicensed exhaust within the 6 GHz band based on a two-type approach, which differentiates between low-power, indoor-most efficient (LPI) AP and standard-vigor AP gadgets.
Attend the 2-Day executive 5G Panel collectionFierceWireless is returning to Barcelona, Spain, throughout cellular World Congress 2019 with a two-day govt 5G Panel sequence at the Fira Congress hotel, with ease establish throughout the road from the MWC conference center. The panel activities will pick region on Feb. 25-26 and should cover 5G and The fastened wireless access possibility, Taking 5G Indoors, and Making 5G Ubiquitous. Attendees will exist able to community and listen to from 5G leaders including Verizon, Vodafone, Orange, sprint, NTT Docomo, Boingo wireless, Qualcomm, and extra over the course of two days.
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mainly, the alliance needs the FCC to accept as loyal with enabling LPI AP operations throughout the entire 6 GHz band, together with the U-NII-5 and U-NII-7 bands, devoid of an automated frequency coordination requirement for these bands. it could additionally want to see the commission enable client contraptions that duty below the manage of an AP to operate on the identical energy stage because the AP (whether average-energy or LPI), among different things.
linked: Wi-Fi Alliance working on thoughts for 6 GHz
in accordance with the Wi-Fi Alliance, the 6 GHz troupe is not simplest advantageous for Wi-Fi, but it surely’s additionally seriously necessary.
“as with every wireless technology, Wi-Fi’s functionality depends on sufficient entry to spectrum,” renowned Alex Roytblat, senior director of regulatory affairs on the Wi-Fi Alliance, in a statement provided to FierceWirelessTech. “at present, Wi-Fi’s performance, capabilities, and its role in the Nation’s telecommunications infrastructure and economy are threatened by means of the want of enough spectrum entry.
related: Wi-Fi Alliance, Cisco among these applauding 6 GHz motion
“To verify this threat, Wi-Fi Alliance commissioned a Spectrum wants analyze that analyzed present and future Wi-Fi spectrum necessities. in response to projected augment prominent for Wi-Fi, through 2025, up to 1500 megahertz of further mid-band spectrum may exist vital to preserve the Wi-Fi ecosystem,” he introduced.
Importantly, the 6 GHz troupe additionally offers contiguous spectrum blocks to accommodate one hundred sixty megahertz channels, that are required for prime-bandwidth applications, akin to excessive-definition video streaming and digital fact. The subsequent technology of Wi-Fi—which is in keeping with IEEE 802.11ax, often known as Wi-Fi 6—is designed to steer these excessive-facts throughput functions.
“in short, the course forward for Wi-Fi and its capacity to continue to carry a pleasing consumer experience, connectivity, economic cost, and a lot of different advantages depends on entry to the entire 6 GHz band,” Roytblat said.
As Wi-Fi Now pronounced remaining week, the IEEE 802.11 working group has determined that best Wi-Fi 6 instruments should exist permitted to operate within the prospective novel 6 GHz Wi-Fi bands, as hostile to past iterations of the ordinary. The determination potential that Wi-Fi 6 could exist defined for operation in complete present Wi-Fi bands together with 2.four GHz, 5 GHz and future 6 GHz. Wi-Fi 5 (802.11ac) will continue to operate in 5 GHz only, while 2.4 GHz will nonetheless steer older Wi-Fi models (predominantly Wi-Fi four or 802.11n), based on Wi-Fi Now.
The Wi-Fi Alliance, despite the fact, renowned it enthusiastically helps the fee’s inspiration to prolong unlicensed access to the 6 GHz troupe but doesn’t are seeking for to restrict unlicensed operations to a particular common or technology.
“old FCC selections to enable unlicensed exhaust on a know-how-impartial basis leveraged a confined quantity of spectrum (e.g., 2.4 GHz or 5 GHz bands) into an explosion of wireless innovation,” Roytblat referred to. “A technology-impartial regulatory model within the 6 GHz troupe would proceed to foster this innovation. The 6 GHz troupe is uniquely applicable for the Wi-Fi 6 implementation and Wi-Fi industry is constructing this expertise in anticipation of the 6 GHz spectrum becoming obtainable in the proximate future. Wi-Fi Alliance additionally is silent focused on their core mission to maintain interoperability so that users maintain the best workable Wi-Fi experience.”
Wall street expects a 12 months-over-12 months enhance in income on greater revenues when Laredo Petroleum (LPI) stories results for the quarter ended December 2018. while this commonly-known consensus outlook is crucial in gauging the enterprise's profits picture, a magnificent ingredient that could influence its near-time epoch stock fee is how the genuine outcomes compare to those estimates.
The stock might movement bigger if these key numbers desirable expectations in the upcoming income document, which is expected to exist released on February 13. on the other hand, in the event that they omit, the inventory may circulate lower.
while management's discussion of business circumstances on the salary muster will commonly investigate the sustainability of the instant rate change and future profits expectations, it exist expense having a handicapping insight into the percentages of a benign EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus Estimate
This oil and natural fuel business is expected to withhold up quarterly revenue of $0.20 per partake in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year alternate of +5.three%.
Revenues are expected to exist $242.fifty nine million, up 0.9% from the year-in the past quarter.
Estimate Revisions fashion
The consensus EPS assay for the quarter has been revised forty four.forty four% lessen over the terminal 30 days to the current level. here's well-nigh a reflection of how the overlaying analysts maintain together reassessed their preliminary estimates over this period.
buyers should pick into account that an combination alternate may also no longer at complete times replicate the direction of assay revisions through each of the protecting analysts.
cost, Consensus and EPS shock
Estimate revisions ahead of a corporation's profits release present clues to the enterprise conditions for the epoch whose consequences are coming out. This perception is at the core of their proprietary shock prediction mannequin -- the Zacks earnings ESP (anticipated shock Prediction).
The Zacks revenue ESP compares essentially the most reform assay to the Zacks Consensus assay for the quarter; probably the most reform assay is a extra recent edition of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The thought here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an profits liberate maintain the newest assistance, which may probably exist extra accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
thus, a positive or terrible profits ESP analyzing theoretically shows the doubtless divergence of the specific income from the consensus estimate. although, the mannequin's predictive energy is huge for high-quality ESP readings simplest.
a positive income ESP is a stalwart predictor of an profits beat, specially when mixed with a Zacks Rank #1 (potent buy), 2 (purchase) or 3 (dangle). Their analysis suggests that shares with this composite bear a benign astound nearly 70% of the time, and a fanciful Zacks Rank in fact increases the predictive punch of salary ESP.
Please word that a penniless income ESP analyzing isn't indicative of an profits miss. Their research shows that it is difficult to call an profits beat with any diploma of self assurance for stocks with penniless revenue ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (promote) or 5 (potent promote).
How maintain the Numbers shaped Up for Laredo Petroleum?
For Laredo Petroleum, probably the most accurate assay is the identical as the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that there are no fresh analyst views which scope from what had been regarded to derive the consensus estimate. This has resulted in an income ESP of 0%.
on the other hand, the stock at the instant carries a Zacks Rank of #three.
So, this composite makes it tricky to conclusively call that Laredo Petroleum will beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does earnings astound background hang Any Clue?
Analysts often conform with to what extent a corporation has been capable of match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it exist expense taking a sight at the shock background for gauging its repercussion on the upcoming number.
For the closing mentioned quarter, it was anticipated that Laredo Petroleum would withhold up revenue of $0.30 per partake when it really produced income of $0.27, supplying a astound of -10%.
Over the ultimate four quarters, the enterprise has crushed consensus EPS estimates only once.
An earnings beat or pass over may now not exist the sole basis for a inventory poignant bigger or reduce. Many stocks become losing ground regardless of an profits beat as a result of other elements that disappoint traders. in a similar fashion, unforeseen catalysts back a number of shares profit regardless of an earnings leave out.
That noted, making a wager on shares which are expected to beat salary expectations does augment the odds of success. this is why it's value checking an organization's earnings ESP and Zacks Rank forward of its quarterly liberate. exist inescapable to utilize their earnings ESP Filter to find the premiere shares to buy or sell earlier than they've mentioned.
Laredo Petroleum does not look a compelling income-beat candidate. despite the fact, traders should pay attention to different elements too for making a wager on this inventory or staying faraway from it forward of its earnings liberate.
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First Republic Bank (FRC) reported first-quarter 2014 adjusted earnings of 67 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus assay of 64 cents. However, the reported motif compared unfavorably with 72 cents per partake earned in the year-ago quarter.
Better-than-expected results were mainly driven by revenue growth, partially offset by a soar in expenses. Capital might and solid franchise evolution were the other tailwinds.
Including inescapable one-time items, the company reported net income of $114.7 million, down 6.4% from the prior-year quarter. Net income available to the common shareholders was $100.8 million, down 12.2% from the prior-year quarter.
Performance in Detail
Total revenue was $362.2 million, up 7.8% year over year. Excluding the repercussion of purchase accounting, First Republic’s core revenue came in at $381.7 million, up 3.1% year over year but below the Zacks Consensus assay of $382.0 million.
First Republic’s net interest income increased 7.6% year over year to $320.7 million. Excluding the repercussion of purchase accounting, net interest income was $301.2 million, up 14.2% from the year-ago quarter.
However, core net interest margin fell 25 basis points (bps) year over year to 3.17%. Excluding the repercussion of purchase accounting, margin was 3.37%, down 50 bps year over year.
The company’s non-interest income came in at $61.0 million, down 15.6% year over year. The decline was primarily owing to a significant drop in proceeds from the sale of loans.
Non-interest expense was $213.4 million, up 17.4% year over year. An augment in salaries and employee benefits, expenses related to technology platform and professional fees primarily led to this rise.
Core efficiency ratio stood at 58.9% as compared with 54.1% in the prior-year quarter. Excluding the repercussion of purchase accounting, the ratio was 57.0% as against 50.4% in the prior-year quarter. An augment in efficiency ratio indicates decline in profitability.
First Republic’s credit trait was mixed in the quarter under review. On a year-over-year basis, the provision for credit losses increased 9.5% to $7.1 million and total nonperforming assets rose 10.9 % to $55.3 million.Further, nonperforming assets to total assets ratio was 0.12%, down from 0.14% in the year-ago quarter. As of Dec 31, 2013, the ratio of net loan charge-offs to tolerable total loans was 0.01%, up from 0.00% the prior-year period.
Asset and Capital Position
During the reported quarter, First Republic’s capital ratios were a mixed bag. As of Mar 31, 2014, the company’s Tier 1 leverage ratio was 9.85% versus 9.36% as of Mar 31, 2013.
Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio was 14.07% compared with 13.53% as of Mar 31, 2013. Further, engage value per partake came in at $26.21, up from $22.97 at the conclude of the prior-year quarter.
Net loans increased 22.9% year over year to $34.4 billion as of Mar 31, 2014, while total deposits rose 25.0 % to $33.6 billion.
First Republic announced an augment in its quarterly cash dividend for the first quarter to 14 cents per share, which is payable on May 15, 2014 to shareholders of record as of May 1, 2014.
We expect First Republic’s growth gaining momentum owing to its balance sheet strength. Moreover, soar in loans and deposits betoken the company’s telling organic growth prospects.
However, higher interest expenses and non-interest expenses are causes of concern. An unsettled economic environment and stringent regulations are the other challenges.
First Republic currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
Among other Western banks, BBCN Bancorp, Inc. (BBCN) is scheduled to report first-quarter results on Apr 21, while SVB pecuniary Group (SIVB) and City National Corporation (CYN) are expected to report on Apr 24.
Read the complete Research Report on CYNRead the complete Research Report on SIVBRead the complete Research Report on BBCNRead the complete Research Report on FRC
Zacks Investment Research
CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--GATX Corporation (NYSE:GMT) today reported 2015 third quarter net income of $39.5 million or $0.91 per diluted share, compared to net income of $51.3 million or $1.14 per diluted partake in the third quarter of 2014. Net income through September 2015 was $147.1 million or $3.33 per diluted share, compared to $146.5 million or $3.18 per diluted partake in the prior year period. The 2015 third quarter and year-to-date results embrace a net after-tax loss of $26.6 million, or $0.61 per diluted partake related to the company’s decision to exit the majority of its marine investments within the Portfolio Management segment.
“The North American railcar leasing environment in 2015 has been consistent with their initial outlook,” said Brian A. Kenney, president and chief executive officer of GATX. “Certain North American car types, especially coal cars, are experiencing decreasing demand. However, GATX’s Lease expense Index, renewal metrics, and remarketing income complete remain strong. Rail North America’s utilization remains extremely towering at 99.2%, reflecting the composition and term structure of GATX’s diverse fleet.”
“Rail International, particularly their European fleet, continues to achieve solid operating results. At American Steamship Company, benign weather conditions, higher water levels, and spot cargoes helped to partially offset softening require for iron ore on the considerable Lakes.”
“During the third-quarter of 2015 they made a strategic decision to exit the majority of their marine investments within their Portfolio Management segment. Although their investments in inland marine assets historically performed very well for GATX, their investments in ocean-going vessels maintain experienced significant earnings volatility. Given that inland marine and ocean-going investments are no longer core to GATX, they are opting to monetize these investments. The investments in Rolls-Royce and Partners Finance are unaffected by this decision and these joint ventures continue to achieve very well.”
Mr. Kenney concluded, “We expect their 2015 full-year earnings to exist at the upper scope of their previously stated assay of $5.15 to $5.35 per diluted share, excluding any repercussion of the exit from Portfolio Management’s marine investments.”
“Looking longer-term, the growing over-supply of tank cars is decreasing tank car renewal rates and making it more difficult to plot novel tank cars delivering in 2016. Their early recognition of the impending changes in the tank car market was the backdrop for their strategy to lock in attractive lease rates for longer terms and maintain a disciplined investment strategy. As a result of this strategy, their committed lease revenues are at record levels, and this base of stable cash tide will serve us well when the environment for more attractive investment opportunities develops.”
RAIL NORTH AMERICA
Rail North America reported segment profit of $90.0 million in the third quarter of 2015, compared to $70.6 million in the third quarter of 2014. The augment in quarterly segment profit was primarily attributable to improved utilization and higher lease rates across the fleet.
Year to date, Rail North America reported segment profit of $280.7 million, compared to $237.3 million in the identical epoch of 2014. The augment in year-to-date segment profit was driven by increased lease revenue from higher lease rates as well as a nine-month contribution and higher utilization from the acquired boxcar fleet compared to six months at a lower utilization rate in the prior year.
At September 30, 2015, Rail North America’s wholly owned fleet was approximately 125,000 cars, including more than 18,500 boxcars. The following fleet statistics exclude the boxcar fleet.
Fleet utilization was 99.2% at the conclude of the third quarter, compared to 99.3% at the conclude of the prior quarter and 98.8% at the conclude of the third quarter of 2014. During the third quarter, the GATX Lease expense Index (“LPI”), a weighted tolerable lease renewal rate for a group of railcars representative of Rail North America's fleet, increased 25.6% over the weighted tolerable expiring lease rate. This compares to a 36.3% augment in the prior quarter and a 46.9% augment in the third quarter of 2014. A lackluster coal market continues to negatively repercussion GATX’s LPI. The tolerable lease renewal term for complete cars included in the LPI during the third quarter was 60 months, compared to 54 months in the prior quarter and 68 months in the third quarter of 2014. Asset remarketing income was approximately $10.5 million during the quarter, and total investment volume was nearly $98 million.
Additional fleet statistics, including information on the boxcar fleet, and macroeconomic data related to Rail North America’s business are provided on the terminal page of this press release.
Rail International's segment profit was $15.5 million in the third quarter of 2015, compared to $19.7 million in the third quarter of 2014. Rail International reported segment profit of $56.4 million year-to-date 2015, compared to $59.8 million for the identical epoch in 2014. The lessen in the segment profit was driven primarily by the effects of a weaker Euro. These alien exchange rate impacts maintain been partially offset by higher lease revenue and lower maintenance costs at GATX Rail Europe (“GRE”).
At September 30, 2015, GRE's fleet consisted of approximately 22,800 cars and utilization was 95.7%, compared to 95.5% at the conclude of the second quarter and 95.1% at the conclude of the third quarter of 2014.
Additional fleet statistics for GATX Rail Europe are provided on the terminal page of this press release.
AMERICAN STEAMSHIP COMPANY
American Steamship Company (“ASC”) reported a segment profit of $10.9 million in the third quarter of 2015 compared to segment profit of $15.2 million in the third quarter of 2014. Segment profit year-to-date 2015 was $13.4 million, compared to $17.1 million year-to-date 2014. ASC carried 19.5 million net tons of cargo through the third quarter of 2015, compared to 19.6 million net tons in the prior year period. The lessen in segment profit was driven by commodity and trade merge variances.
In the third quarter of 2015, Portfolio Management recorded a segment loss of $17.3 million, including a net pre-tax loss of approximately $42.5 million ($26.6 million after-tax) associated with the planned exit of the majority of Portfolio Management’s marine investments. The loss associated with this exit taken in the third quarter is expected to exist partially offset by inland marine-related nature gains that they expect to achieve in the fourth quarter.
Segment profit year-to-date 2015 was $8.9 million, compared to $40.1 million year-to-date 2014. The lessen in year-to-date segment profit was due to a net loss associated with the planned exit from Portfolio Management’s marine investments.
GATX Corporation (NYSE:GMT) strives to exist recognized as the finest railcar leasing company in the world by its customers, its shareholders, its employees and the communities where it operates. As the largest global railcar lessor, GATX has been providing trait railcars and services to its customers for more than 116 years. GATX has been headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, since its founding in 1898. For more information, please visit the Company's website at www.gatx.com.
GATX Corporation will host a teleconference to debate 2015 third-quarter results. muster details are as follows:
Thursday, October 22nd11:00 A.M. Eastern TimeDomestic Dial-In: 1-877-675-4753International Dial-In: 1-719-325-4810Replay: 1-888-203-1112 or 1-719-457-0820/Access Code: 216717
Call-in details, a copy of this press release and real-time audio access are available at www.gatx.com. please access the muster 15 minutes prior to the start time. Following the call, a replay will exist available on the identical site.
Forward-looking statements in this press release that are not historical facts are “forward-looking statements” within the import of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These embrace statements that reflect their current views with respect to, among other things, future events, pecuniary performance and market conditions. In some cases, forward-looking statements can exist identified by the exhaust of words such as “may,” “could,” “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “seek,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “predict,” “potential,” “continue,” “likely,” “will,” “would,” and variations of these terms and similar expressions, or the negative of these terms or similar expressions. Specific risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, (1) changes in regulatory requirements for tank cars carrying crude, ethanol, and other flammable liquids, (2) competitive factors in their primary markets, (3) inability to maintain their assets on lease at satisfactory rates, (4) frail economic conditions, pecuniary market volatility, and other factors that may lessen require for their assets and services, (5) changes to, or failure to comply with, laws, rules, and regulations applicable to their assets and operations, (6) operational disruption and increased costs associated with compliance maintenance programs and other maintenance initiatives, (7) pecuniary and operational risks associated with long-term railcar purchase commitments, (8) deterioration of conditions in the capital markets, reductions in their credit ratings, or increases in their financing costs, (9) events having an adverse repercussion on assets, customers, or regions where they maintain a large investment, (10) decreased require for inescapable railcars used in the petroleum industry due to sustained low crude-oil prices, (11) risks related to international operations and expansion into novel geographic markets, (12) inadequate allowances to cover credit losses in their portfolio, (13) asset impairment charges they may exist required to recognize, (14) environmental remediation costs or a negative outcome in their pending or threatened litigation, (15) inability to obtain cost-effective insurance, (16) fluctuations in alien exchange rates, (17) operational and pecuniary risks related to their affiliate investments, (18) reduced opportunities to generate asset remarketing income, (19) failure to successfully negotiate collective bargaining agreements with the unions representing a substantial portion of their employees, and (20) other risks discussed in their filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including their profile 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014, and their subsequently filed profile 10-Q reports, complete of which are available on the SEC’s website (www.sec.gov).
Investors should not plot undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date they are made, and are not guarantees of future performance. The Company undertakes no duty to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements.
Investor, corporate, financial, historical financial, photographic and news release information may exist establish at www.gatx.com.
--Tabular Follow--GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF INCOME (UNAUDITED) (In millions, except per partake data)
Three Months EndedSeptember 30
Nine Months EndedSeptember 302015 2014 2015 2014 Revenues Lease revenue $ 286.2 $ 279.1 $ 845.1 $ 804.0 Marine operating revenue 77.6 98.9 167.8 188.8 Other revenue 22.4 19.2 58.3 56.8 Total Revenues 386.2 397.2 1,071.2 1,049.6 Expenses Maintenance expense 83.9 85.6 242.4 242.7 Marine operating expense 48.5 64.8 114.7 134.4 Depreciation expense 75.0 71.9 217.9 201.7 Operating lease expense 22.3 27.4 65.4 81.6 Other operating expense 8.3 8.0 23.4 21.3 Selling, general and administrative expense 44.4 45.8 134.7 133.4 Total Expenses 282.4 303.5 798.5 815.1 Other Income (Expense) Net (loss) gain on asset dispositions (4.5 ) 6.3 49.5 62.6 Interest expense, net (37.7 ) (38.1 ) (117.1 ) (119.6 ) Other expense (3.1 ) (3.1 ) (8.7 ) (11.4 ) Income before Income Taxes and partake of Affiliates’ Earnings 58.5 58.8 196.4 166.1 Income Taxes (20.3 ) (19.9 ) (68.1 ) (54.2 ) Share of Affiliates’ Earnings (net of tax) 1.3 12.4 18.8 34.6 Net Income $ 39.5 $ 51.3 $ 147.1 $ 146.5 Share Data Basic earnings per share $ 0.92 $ 1.16 $ 3.38 $ 3.24 Average number of common shares 42.8 44.4 43.5 45.3 Diluted earnings per share $ 0.91 $ 1.14 $ 3.33 $ 3.18 Average number of common shares and common partake equivalents 43.4 45.2 44.1 46.1 Dividends declared per common share $ 0.38 $ 0.33 $ 1.14 $ 0.99 GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES CONSOLIDATED balance SHEETS (UNAUDITED) (In millions) September 30 December 31 2015 2014 Assets Cash and Cash Equivalents $ 116.0 $ 209.9 Restricted Cash 15.5 14.5 Receivables Rent and other receivables 90.7 86.0 Loans 9.6 97.3 Finance leases 170.5 174.7 Less: allowance for losses (6.3 ) (5.7 ) 264.5 352.3 Operating Assets and Facilities 8,141.2 8,143.5 Less: allowance for depreciation (2,487.9 ) (2,455.5 ) 5,653.3 5,688.0 Investments in Affiliated Companies 364.1 357.7 Goodwill 81.4 86.1 Other Assets 409.9 229.0 Total Assets $ 6,904.7 $ 6,937.5 Liabilities and Shareholders’ Equity Accounts Payable and Accrued Expenses $ 148.7 $ 165.9 Debt Commercial paper and borrowings under bank credit facilities 18.1 72.1 Recourse 4,271.2 4,179.9 Nonrecourse 9.2 15.9 Capital lease obligations 3.6 6.3 4,302.1 4,274.2 Deferred Income Taxes 987.1 937.3 Other Liabilities 197.8 246.1 Total Liabilities 5,635.7 5,623.5 Total Shareholders’ Equity 1,269.0 1,314.0 Total Liabilities and Shareholders’ Equity $ 6,904.7 $ 6,937.5 GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES SEGMENT DATA (UNAUDITED) Three Months Ended September 30, 2015 (In millions)
Portfolio GATX Rail N.A.
Rail Int’lASC Management Other Consolidated Revenues Lease revenue $ 234.9 $ 44.1 $ 1.1 $ 6.1 $ — $ 286.2 Marine operating revenue — — 61.7 15.9 — 77.6 Other revenue 20.3 1.7 — 0.4 — 22.4 Total Revenues 255.2 45.8 62.8 22.4 — 386.2 Expenses Maintenance expense 66.7 9.9 7.3 — — 83.9 Marine operating expense — — 36.7 11.8 — 48.5 Depreciation expense 54.5 11.1 4.7 4.7 — 75.0 Operating lease expense 20.6 (0.1 ) 1.8 — — 22.3 Other operating expense 6.8 1.1 — 0.4 — 8.3 Total Expenses 148.6 22.0 50.5 16.9 — 238.0 Other Income (Expense) Net gain (loss) on asset dispositions 11.5 0.5 — (16.5 ) — (4.5 ) Interest expense, net (27.0 ) (7.0 ) (1.4 ) (4.7 ) 2.4 (37.7 ) Other expense (1.2 ) (1.8 ) — — (0.1 ) (3.1 ) Share of affiliates’ earnings (pretax) (1) 0.1 — — (1.6 ) — (1.5 ) Segment Profit (Loss) $ 90.0 $ 15.5 $ 10.9 $ (17.3 ) $ 2.3 $ 101.4 Selling, general and administrative expense 44.4 Income taxes (includes $2.8 tax profit related to affiliates’ earnings) 17.5 Net Income $ 39.5
Selected Data:Investment Volume $ 97.8 $ 40.9 $ 0.8 $ 1.9 $ 0.7 $ 142.1 Net Gain on Asset Dispositions
Asset Remarketing Income:Disposition gains on owned assets $ 10.2 $ — $ — $ 7.2 $ — $ 17.4 Residual sharing income 0.3 — — 7.3 — 7.6 Non-remarketing nature gains (2) 1.0 0.6 — — — 1.6 Asset impairment — (0.1 ) — (31.0 ) — (31.1 ) Total Net Gain on Asset Dispositions $ 11.5 $ 0.5 $ — $ (16.5 ) $ — $ (4.5 )
(1) Includes a $19.0 million impairment loss in the Portfolio Management segment.
(2) Includes scrapping gains.GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES SEGMENT DATA (UNAUDITED) Three Months Ended September 30, 2014 (In millions)
Portfolio GATX Rail N.A.
Rail Int’lASC Management Other Consolidated Revenues Lease revenue $ 222.6 $ 47.9 $ 1.1 $ 7.5 $ — $ 279.1 Marine operating revenue — — 82.7 16.2 — 98.9 Other revenue 15.7 2.3 — 1.2 — 19.2 Total Revenues 238.3 50.2 83.8 24.9 — 397.2 Expenses Maintenance expense 65.7 11.0 8.9 — — 85.6 Marine operating expense — — 52.2 12.6 — 64.8 Depreciation expense 49.7 11.9 4.5 5.8 — 71.9 Operating lease expense 25.6 — 1.8 — — 27.4 Other operating expense 6.1 1.2 — 0.7 — 8.0 Total Expenses 147.1 24.1 67.4 19.1 — 257.7 Other Income (Expense) Net gain on asset dispositions 4.4 0.8 — 1.1 — 6.3 Interest expense, net (24.1 ) (6.0 ) (1.4 ) (5.8 ) (0.8 ) (38.1 ) Other expense (1.0 ) (1.1 ) 0.2 (1.4 ) 0.2 (3.1 ) Share of affiliates’ earnings (pretax) 0.1 (0.1 ) — 17.0 — 17.0 Segment Profit (Loss) $ 70.6 $ 19.7 $ 15.2 $ 16.7 $ (0.6 ) $ 121.6 Selling, general and administrative expense 45.8 Income taxes (includes $4.6 related to affiliates’ earnings) 24.5 Net Income $ 51.3
Selected Data:Investment Volume $ 118.9 $ 45.6 $ 0.9 $ 5.0 $ 1.1 $ 171.5 Net Gain on Asset Dispositions
Asset Remarketing Income:Disposition gains on owned assets $ 1.2 $ — $ — $ — $ — $ 1.2 Residual sharing income 0.1 — — 1.1 — 1.2 Non-remarketing nature gains (1) 3.1 0.9 — — — 4.0 Asset impairment — (0.1 ) — — — (0.1 ) Total Net Gain on Asset Dispositions $ 4.4 $ 0.8 $ — $ 1.1 $ — $ 6.3
(1) Includes scrapping gains.GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES SEGMENT DATA (UNAUDITED) Nine Months Ended September 30, 2015 (In millions)
Portfolio GATX Rail N.A.
Rail Int’lASC Management Other Consolidated Revenues Lease revenue $ 694.3 $ 128.6 $ 3.1 $ 19.1 $ — $ 845.1 Marine operating revenue — — 119.7 48.1 — 167.8 Other revenue 51.8 5.3 — 1.2 — 58.3 Total Revenues 746.1 133.9 122.8 68.4 — 1,071.2 Expenses Maintenance expense 199.7 28.2 14.5 — — 242.4 Marine operating expense — — 77.7 37.0 — 114.7 Depreciation expense 160.1 32.6 9.6 15.6 — 217.9 Operating lease expense 62.0 — 3.5 — (0.1 ) 65.4 Other operating expense 18.1 3.5 — 1.8 — 23.4 Total Expenses 439.9 64.3 105.3 54.4 (0.1 ) 663.8 Other Income (Expense) Net gain (loss) on asset dispositions 54.4 6.5 — (11.4 ) — 49.5 Interest expense, net (76.1 ) (16.5 ) (4.0 ) (15.5 ) (5.0 ) (117.1 ) Other expense (4.2 ) (3.0 ) (0.1 ) — (1.4 ) (8.7 ) Share of affiliates’ earnings (pretax) (1) 0.4 (0.2 ) — 21.8 — 22.0 Segment Profit (Loss) $ 280.7 $ 56.4 $ 13.4 $ 8.9 $ (6.3 ) $ 353.1 Selling, general and administrative expense 134.7 Income taxes (includes $3.2 related to affiliates’ earnings) 71.3 Net Income $ 147.1
Selected Data:Investment Volume $ 362.8 $ 110.1 $ 20.3 $ 2.2 $ 2.9 $ 498.3 Net Gain on Asset Dispositions
Asset Remarketing Income:Disposition gains on owned assets $ 51.1 $ — $ — $ 9.3 $ — $ 60.4 Residual sharing income 0.7 — — 10.3 — 11.0 Non-remarketing nature gains (2) 2.6 6.7 — — — 9.3 Asset impairment — (0.2 ) — (31.0 ) — (31.2 ) Total Net Gain on Asset Dispositions $ 54.4 $ 6.5 $ — $ (11.4 ) $ — $ 49.5
(1) Includes a $19.0 million impairment loss in the Portfolio Management segment.
(2) Includes scrapping gains.GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES SEGMENT DATA (UNAUDITED) Nine Months Ended September 30, 2014 (In millions) Portfolio GATX Rail N.A. Rail Int’l ASC Management Other Consolidated Revenues Lease revenue $ 635.7 $ 142.8 $ 3.2 $ 22.3 $ — $ 804.0 Marine operating revenue — — 145.2 43.6 — 188.8 Other revenue 46.4 6.7 — 3.7 — 56.8 Total Revenues 682.1 149.5 148.4 69.6 — 1,049.6 Expenses Maintenance expense 192.2 34.1 16.4 — — 242.7 Marine operating expense — — 97.9 36.5 — 134.4 Depreciation expense 140.3 35.4 8.9 17.1 — 201.7 Operating lease expense 78.2 — 3.5 — (0.1 ) 81.6 Other operating expense 16.1 3.6 — 1.6 — 21.3 Total Expenses 426.8 73.1 126.7 55.2 (0.1 ) 681.7 Other Income (Expense) Net gain (loss) on asset dispositions 53.1 5.8 (0.4 ) 4.1 — 62.6 Interest expense, net (74.0 ) (18.4 ) (4.2 ) (18.7 ) (4.3 ) (119.6 ) Other (expense) income (4.7 ) (3.8 ) — (1.1 ) (1.8 ) (11.4 ) Share of affiliates’ earnings (pretax) 7.6 (0.2 ) — 41.4 — 48.8 Segment Profit (Loss) $ 237.3 $ 59.8 $ 17.1 $ 40.1 $ (6.0 ) $ 348.3 Selling, general and administrative expense 133.4 Income taxes (includes $14.2 related to affiliates’ earnings) 68.4 Net Income $ 146.5
Selected Data:Investment Volume $ 660.7 $ 127.2 $ 16.9 $ 17.0 $ 4.8 $ 826.6 Net Gain on Asset Dispositions
Asset Remarketing Income:Disposition gains on owned assets $ 40.5 $ 0.6 $ — $ 0.5 $ — $ 41.6 Residual sharing income 4.5 — — 3.5 — 8.0 Non-remarketing nature gains (1) 8.1 5.3 — — — 13.4 Asset impairment — (0.1 ) (0.4 ) 0.1 — (0.4 ) Total Net Gain on Asset Dispositions $ 53.1 $ 5.8 $ (0.4 ) $ 4.1 $ — $ 62.6
(1) Includes scrapping gains.GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION (UNAUDITED) (In millions, except per partake data)
Impact of Other Items on Net Income:Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended September 30 September 30 2015 2014 2015 2014
Other ItemsDisposition of marine investments (26.6 ) — (26.6 ) — Total repercussion on Net Income $ (26.6 ) $ — $ (26.6 ) $ —
Impact of Other Items on Diluted Earnings per Share:Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended September 30 September 30 2015 2014 2015 2014
Other ItemsDisposition of marine investments (0.61 ) — (0.61 ) — Total repercussion on Diluted Earnings per Share $ (0.61 ) $ — $ (0.61 ) $ —
We highlight these items to allow for a more meaningful comparison of pecuniary performance between years and to provide transparency into the operating results of their business.GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION (UNAUDITED) (In millions, except leverage) (Continued) 9/30/2014 12/31/2014 3/31/2015 6/30/2015 9/30/2015
Assets by Segment (includes off-balance-sheet assets)Rail North America $ 4,902.2 $ 4,939.9 $ 5,057.6 $ 5,081.2 $ 5,076.7 Rail International 1,220.1 1,193.0 1,029.1 1,075.2 1,101.2 ASC 304.2 298.3 283.8 317.0 304.9 Portfolio Management 814.2 811.4 792.1 793.4 730.7 Other 118.1 88.3 103.4 87.8 98.6 Total Assets, excluding cash $ 7,358.8 $ 7,330.9 $ 7,266.0 $ 7,354.6 $ 7,312.1
Capital StructureCommercial paper and bank credit facilities, net of unrestricted cash $ (0.2 ) $ (137.8 ) $ (348.6 ) $ (54.8 ) $ (97.9 ) On-balance-sheet recourse debt 4,081.8 4,179.9 4,443.8 4,208.1 4,271.2 On-balance-sheet nonrecourse debt 18.1 15.9 13.7 11.5 9.2 Off-balance-sheet recourse debt 562.9 566.7 527.4 519.1 493.5 Off-balance-sheet nonrecourse debt 52.9 51.1 49.2 47.4 45.4 Capital lease obligations 6.3 6.3 5.0 5.0 3.6 Total Borrowings, net of unrestricted cash $ 4,721.8 $ 4,682.1 $ 4,690.5 $ 4,736.3 $ 4,725.0 Total Recourse Debt (1) $ 4,650.8 $ 4,615.1 $ 4,627.6 $ 4,677.4 $ 4,670.4 Shareholders’ Equity $ 1,331.2 $ 1,314.0 $ 1,282.5 $ 1,285.4 $ 1,269.0 Recourse Leverage (2) 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7
_________(1) Includes on- and off-balance-sheet recourse debt; capital lease obligations; commercial paper and bank credit facilities, net of unrestricted cash. (2) Calculated as total recourse debt / shareholder's equity.
Reconciliation of Total Assets to Total Assets (Including Off-Balance-Sheet Assets), Excluding Cash:Total Assets $ 6,816.3 $ 6,937.5 $ 7,056.4 $ 6,860.0 $ 6,904.7 Less: cash (73.3 ) (224.4 ) (367.0 ) (71.9 ) (131.5 ) Add off-balance-sheet assets: Rail North America 602.9 606.1 566.1 557.2 530.9 ASC 12.9 11.7 10.5 9.3 8.0 Total Assets, excluding cash $ 7,358.8 $ 7,330.9 $ 7,266.0 $ 7,354.6 $ 7,312.1 GATX CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION (UNAUDITED) (Continued) 9/30/2014 12/31/2014 3/31/2015 6/30/2015 9/30/2015
Rail North America StatisticsLease expense Index (LPI) (1) Average renewal lease rate change 46.9 % 39.2 % 43.2 % 36.3 % 25.6 % Average renewal term (months) 68 67 59 54 60 Fleet Rollforward (2) Beginning balance 106,894 107,387 107,343 106,949 106,984 Cars added 958 835 1,013 823 620 Cars scrapped (440 ) (202 ) (261 ) (347 ) (396 ) Cars sold (25 ) (677 ) (1,146 ) (441 ) (816 ) Ending balance 107,387 107,343 106,949 106,984 106,392 Utilization 98.8 % 99.2 % 99.3 % 99.3 % 99.2 % Average vigorous railcars 105,755 106,569 106,541 106,211 105,896 Boxcar Fleet Ending balance 19,146 19,021 18,912 18,651 18,567 Utilization 91.3 % 92.7 % 92.8 % 97.3 % 96.6 %
Rail Europe StatisticsFleet Rollforward Beginning balance 21,684 21,960 22,451 22,497 22,483 Cars added 481 657 249 301 412 Cars scrapped/sold (205 ) (166 ) (203 ) (315 ) (150 ) Ending balance 21,960 22,451 22,497 22,483 22,745 Utilization 95.1 % 95.9 % 95.9 % 95.5 % 95.7 % Average vigorous railcars 20,833 21,111 21,479 21,427 21,630
Rail North America Industry StatisticsManufacturing Capacity Utilization Index (3) 79.5 % 79.5 % 79.0 % 77.5 % 77.5 % Year-over-year Change in U.S. Carloadings (excl. intermodal) (4) 3.6 % 3.9 % 0.3 % (3.8 )% (4.4 )% Year-over-year Change in U.S. Carloadings (chemical) (4) 1.5 % 1.2 % 1.8 % 0.4 % 0.5 % Year-over-year Change in U.S. Carloadings (petroleum) (4) 12.8 % 12.7 % 0.4 % (1.1 )% (5.9 )% Production Backlog at Railcar Manufacturers (5) 124,437 142,837 138,856 135,805 122,591
American Steamship Company StatisticsTotal Net Tons Carried (millions) 11.3 10.9 0.8 8.4 10.3
_________(1) GATX's Lease expense Index ("LPI") is an internally-generated business indicator that measures lease rate pricing on renewals within their North American railcar fleet, excluding the boxcar fleet. The index is calculated using the weighted tolerable lease rate for a group of railcar types that GATX believes best represents its overall North American fleet, excluding boxcars. The tolerable renewal lease rate change is reported as the percentage change between the tolerable renewal lease rate and the tolerable expiring lease rate, weighted by fleet composition. The tolerable renewal lease term is reported in months and reflects the tolerable renewal lease term of railcar types in the LPI, weighted by fleet composition. (2) Excludes boxcar fleet. (3) As reported and revised by the Federal Reserve. (4) As reported by the Association of American Railroads (AAR). (5) As reported by the Railway Supply Institute (RSI).
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